Thiruvananthapuram, Jan 17 : Fog conditions are now moving to the east of the country with Assam and adjoining eastern parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains forecast to be brought under cover over the next two days.
In its outlook until Wednesday next, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that these conditions would migrate to the Gangetic plains and Assam in stages.
No significant change is seen in maximum temperatures over north-west India during the next two days, the IMD said in its outlook on Friday. But, these may rise by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over central and adjoining east India.NIGHT TEMPERATURE
Minimum temperatures may fall over parts of north-west and east India but are expected to be unchanged over central India. The lowest minimum temperature over plains of the country was 1.4 deg Celsius at Amritsar.
The IMD saw the arrival of a weak western disturbance by Monday. Isolated to scattered rain or snow has been forecast over the western Himalayan region.
Minimum temperatures were below normal by 2 to 5 deg Celsius over parts of central and east Rajasthan on Thursday. Cold northerly/northwesterly winds prevailed in the lower levels over the Indo-Gangetic plains.
Meanwhile, latest international model forecasts did not indicate consensus with regard to the outlook for the extent of scattered to widespread rains for northwest India late next week (from around January 20).
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has whittled down its outlook suggesting that the rains would be concentrated over Rajasthan, north Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and west Uttar Pradesh during January 23 to 31.
NOT IN EAST
It seems to have withdrawn the possibility of spread of these rains into the east of the country. Earlier forecasts had suggested these rains may propagate as far east as the north-eastern States.
Accordingly, it has also restricted the comparatively higher temperature regime (from the clouding and possible rains) to more northern latitude than was earlier indicated.
But the Jones model for outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), a meteorological parameter to assess the presence of cloudiness, has indicated that OLR values are likely to stay negative over most of north India during January 21 to 26.
Negative OLR values mean that less radiation is getting reflected back to the atmosphere, and is a proxy for the presence of clouds and possibly rains. By the same token, positive OLR values indicate clear skies and drier atmosphere.
In fact, the Jones model goes on to suggest that the negative OLR values would gradually spread eastwards and southward during the rest of the month (until January 31 up to which forecasts were available).
CLOUD COVER
Thus central, east and even north peninsular India are likely to be brought under cloud cover as westerly systems interact with easterly surge of moisture from the Bay of Bengal. But this would bear some watching, according to forecasters here.
In the south, isolated rainfall has been reported from Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Friday morning, according to an update by the Chennai Regional Meteorology Centre.
Forecast for the next two days said that isolated rain may occur over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Karnataka.
No comments:
Post a Comment