Like millions around the world, I was eager to hear the inaugural speech of the energetic Barack H. Obama. His eloquent speech of transforming America’s image around the world thereby engaging with friends and foes alike received enthusiastic attention.
Though distasteful to some dictatorial regimes, it was heartening to hear when Obama said: “To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.”
From the time Obama became the Democrat nominee for president, debates began on how effectively Washington should approach Burma. Many Burmese opposition groups in exile were largely in favor of president George W. Bush’s sanction and isolation policy.
In the midst of numerous opinions and suggestions, the Obama Administration was noticeably consulting a variety of groups, including academics who were considered to be experts on Burma. I was one of the few who advocated that the US should move beyond sanctions by pursuing engagement policy.
In an article in the China Post, I argued the ineffectiveness of conflicting approaches: “It must be difficult for the US Government to abandon its traditional policy of isolating the Burmese generals and start engaging with them. But they have to realise that sanction alone is not effective in resolving Burma’s crisis when there is engagement on the other end.”
Then came February 2009 when Hillary Clinton made her first visit to Asia as Secretary of State. In her public statement on the Obama Administration’s policy on Burma, Clinton stated that “clearly, the path we have taken in imposing sanctions hasn’t influenced the Burmese junta”, and added that the route taken by Burma’s neighbous of “reaching out and trying to engage them has not influenced them, either.”
In the final weeks of his presidency in November 2008, George Bush unsuccessfully nominated a special envoy for Burma. The idea was welcomed by many analysts and observers. In an opinion piece in The Washington Times entitled “A possible way out”, I argued the importance of a special envoy who could lead a co-ordinated international approach and give engagement a chance.
Then came September 2009 when the Obama Administration announced its nine-month long policy review to start engaging the military leadership while retaining sanctions. Currently, Washington’s priorities on both domestic and international fronts seem to keep the Burma issue on the back burner. The continued challenging wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; the increasing political turmoil in Iran, and the confrontational nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran have overshadowed other issues.
Domestically, the slow pace of economic recovery and the uncertainty of the health-care agenda are the burning issues for the Administration. Planning for this year’s upcoming congressional and gubernatorial elections is also high on the agenda, with the loss of Massachusetts a wake up call for Obama.
Meanwhile, the Burmese military junta is planning to move ahead with the proposed 2010 general election, though neither electoral laws nor election date is announced. The National League for Democracy, the main opposition party, doesn’t know if will be allowed to take part or if it is, if the party will stand.
Though uncertainty still remains with Burma’s political future, it is important that the US Government continues to engage. A meaningful dialogue between the military leader, Than Shwe, and the opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, must be encouraged with an ultimate goal to paving the way for national reconciliation.
The US should also continue to put pressure on the military generals to release political prisoners, and to address the country’s more than half-a-century’s old ethnic minority problems.
Because of the historical and ethno-political nature of Burma’s conflicts, finding a resolution will require in-depth analysis, a systematic approach, and comprehensive remedial measures.
**Nehginpao Kipgen is a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in modern Burma (1947-2004) and general secretary of the US-based Kuki International Forum
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